Syria & Israel: Why Hasn’t A Peace Treaty Been Signed Yet?

As of December 31, 2025, Syria and Israel have not signed a peace treaty following the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024. While negotiations for a security agreement advanced significantly earlier in the year, with U.S. mediation under President Trump playing a key role, talks have stalled due to fundamental disagreements on terms and territorial concessions. The two countries have technically been in a state of war since 1948, with no formal peace despite a 1974 disengagement agreement that Israel declared void after Assad’s ouster, citing security vacuums.

Recent developments, including a December 29 meeting between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, resulted in an “understanding” on Syria, but this has not translated into a treaty, and Israel has continued to expand its buffer zone in southern Syria, creating further tensions with the new regime in Syria.

Timeline of Key Developments in Syria-Israel Relations Post-Assad (December 2024–December 2025)

The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime on December 8, 2024, created a power vacuum that Israel quickly exploited. Israel declared the 1974 Disengagement Agreement void, invaded the UN-monitored buffer zone in the Golan Heights, and launched extensive airstrikes to destroy Syrian military assets. This set the stage for a year of tense negotiations, intermittent violence, and stalled progress toward any formal agreement.

• December 2024: Israel occupies the buffer zone, seizes Mount Hermon summit, and begins airstrikes across Syria to prevent weapons from falling into hostile hands.
• Early 2025 (January–February): Israel establishes military posts in the buffer zone and expands incursions. UNDOF peacekeepers remain but acknowledge Israel as de facto authority in occupied areas.
• Mid-2025 (May–September): U.S.-mediated talks intensify under Trump administration. Reports describe negotiations as “advanced,” with Syria open to a security pact based on 1974 lines but rejecting full normalization. Al-Sharaa states a deal could come “in days” at points, but Israel demands extensive demilitarization southwest of Damascus and retention of most Golan territory.
• Late 2025: Talks stall over Israel’s hardening stance—no withdrawal without comprehensive peace (including Golan recognition). Israel continues raids (e.g., Beit Jinn killing 13), expands checkpoints, and bulldozes land in Quneitra. On December 29, Trump-Netanyahu meeting yields an “understanding” on Syria; Trump praises al-Sharaa as a “strong guy” and expresses optimism for rapport, while Netanyahu emphasizes peaceful borders and minority protections.

As of December 31, 2025, no security pact or peace treaty has been signed. Relative calm prevails—no major clashes recently—but underlying tensions persist.

Key Reasons for the Lack of a Peace Treaty

1. Differing Demands on Agreement Scope: Israel has insisted on a comprehensive peace deal as a precondition for withdrawing from Syrian territories it occupied post-Assad, including expanded buffer zones and strategic points like Mount Hermon. In contrast, Syria’s new leadership under President Ahmed al-Shara has pushed for a more limited security arrangement based on the 1974 armistice, with minor adjustments and no full normalization until Israel retreats. By November 2025, reports described talks as at a “dead end” over this impasse, and recent U.S. efforts have not bridged the gap.

2. Territorial Disputes, Especially the Golan Heights: The Golan Heights, captured by Israel in the 1967 Six-Day War and annexed in 1981, remains a core obstacle. Syria demands its return as part of any deal, but Israel views it as essential for security and has no intention of relinquishing control without ironclad guarantees. Post-Assad, Israel advanced into additional Syrian areas to prevent threats from filling the power vacuum, further complicating de-escalation. Discussions in 2025, including potential inclusion in expanded Abraham Accords, have not resolved this, with Israel conducting airstrikes on Syrian military sites even as talks progressed.

3. Security Concerns and Mutual Distrust: Israel prioritizes safeguards against potential threats from Syria, including radical groups or Iranian influence lingering after Assad. The new Syrian government, led by the former HTS (Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham) faction, has distanced itself from extremism and cooperated with U.S. anti-ISIS efforts, but Israel remains wary of long-term stability. Syria, meanwhile, accuses Israel of repeated violations of the 1974 agreement through incursions and strikes, eroding trust. Netanyahu has emphasized protecting Druze and Christian communities in Syria as part of any border peace, adding layers to negotiations.

4. External Influences and Geopolitics: Turkey’s growing role in post-Assad Syria, including support for certain factions, is seen by Israel as a threat, potentially complicating any deal. U.S. involvement has been pivotal—Trump’s administration reported a security deal as “99% complete” in September 2025—but Israel’s actions, like expanding the buffer zone despite Trump’s disapproval, highlight tensions. Broader regional dynamics, including Russia’s reduced presence after withdrawing support for Assad and ongoing UN discussions on the Golan (e.g., UNDOF mandate), add pressure but no resolution.

Any Potential for Modest De-Escalation?

A quiet, informal de-escalation and confidence-building measures could emerge in 2026, mainly driven by:

• Strong U.S. pressure under Trump, who has invested personally (hosting al-Sharaa, mediating via envoys).
• Mutual interest in stability: Syria needs reconstruction and sanctions relief; Israel wants to prevent threats in the post-Assad vacuum.
• Relative calm on the ground recently—no major escalations reported in late December.

Optimistic leaks talking about (“deal by end of the year”) didn’t materialize, mirroring failed talks in the 1990s-2000s. Exhaustion from regional conflicts might eventually push compromise, but as of now, maximalist positions and distrust make a breakthrough unlikely soon. If Trump leans harder on Netanyahu, something limited could happen—but probably there will be signed agreement before mid-2026. Trump has voiced optimism, praising al-Shara as a “strong guy” and hoping for rapport with Israel, but as of now, the gap between a security pact and full peace remains unbridged.

Future progress could hinge on U.S. leverage, concessions on territories, or a better Turkish-Israeli understandings. But still, historical precedents (e.g., failed talks in the 1990s) suggest that resolution may take time, much more than expected.