On June 29th, the Times of Israel headlined “Hezbollah-allied Lebanese parliament speaker says deal with Israel ‘will not pass’”, and this is like if John Thune the Senate Majority Leader were to announce that a treaty which had been negotiated by the U.S., President would not pass in the U.S. Congress (specifically in the Senate) — that it is dead.
The Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) reached between the U.S. and Iran on June 17th allowed negotiators 60 days to achieve a peace treaty to end America’s basically war against Iran, which had started in 1979 when the Islamic Revolution in Iran against the 1953 U.S. CIA-coup-imposed fascist ruler, the Shah of Iran, whom the U.S. had installed to lead the country, became overthrown. (The U.S. has since been wanting his son to be installed, in order to resume U.S. control there.) But no peace treaty can be achieved: Though such a MoA would be, and was, acceptable to Iran’s Government, and also to the U.S.-imposed Lebanese Government (which is ruled by a U.S.-imposed pro-Israel anti-Iranian President, the Christian Joseph Aoun), the MoU that suspended the war is already so much opposed by the publics in both of those countries, that they are rising up increasingly in outrage against the MoU; and, now, there is serious concern that the heads-of-state both in Iran and in Lebanon will be assassinated unless they publicly back away from the MoU. Details documenting this uprising are provided in the linked-to sources in the following brilliantly produced Semafor summary on June 29th about the Lebanese situation;
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29 June 2026
“Fury over Lebanon ceasefire deal”
No one seems happy with the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire signed on Friday, which is already facing challenges. Under the agreement, the Lebanese army would gradually assume control over the country’s territory and non-state armed groups such as Hezbollah would be dismantled. The Lebanese parliament speaker, a Hezbollah ally, said it would not pass, calling it an “agreement of diktats,” while a hard-right Israeli minister called it a “big mistake.” Lebanese citizens protested in the capital, waving Hezbollah flags and denouncing the government. Israel-Lebanon fighting also threatens to undermine the wider US-Iran truce, although it needs little undermining: Iran’s hard-line preachers, usually loyal to the government, have been leading protests against the deal, Radio Free Europe reported.
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Lebanon is part of the MoA (or “Islamabad Memorandum”) because the first of the 14 points in the MoA says:
“The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran and their allies in the current war by signing this MoU, declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. Final deal will confirm the permanent termination of the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and other provisions of this paragraph.”
Israel insists upon absorbing, taking control over, southern Lebanon, which would require dismantling Hezbollah.
A superb June 29th news-report from the Jerusalem Post, headlined “Israel-Lebanon framework faces first test as Hezbollah rejects disarmament deal – analysis: Lebanon’s ability to enforce state authority in the south remains the central question as Israel, Lebanon, and the US move from diplomacy to implementation.” It made clear that polling of the Lebanese peoples shows the country to be deeply split according to religion, with Christians favoring Israel, and Shiite Muslims favoring Palestinians and Hezbollah, while Sunni Muslims are less strongly favoring Palestinians and Hezbollah; and, so, the U.S.-imposed Christian President of the country would have to make an impossible sell to his Shiites, and even to the rest of his Muslim population, in order to force Hezbollah to yield up its weapons — surrender to Israel and the U.S. It won’t happen.
Furthermore, Lebanon’s pro-Hezbollah Alahed News had headlined on 25 February 2025, “New Poll: Arab World Rejects ’Israel’, Distrust of US Deepens Sharply” and reported from Qatar’s Doha Institute’s Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies latest pollings throughout the Arabic countries, “Arab Index 2024/2025”, that “Unsurprisingly, respondents who opposed recognition [of Israel’s right to exist] cited overwhelmingly political, not religious, reasons. The leading justification, cited by 31.5%, was the Israeli status as a settler-colonial state occupying Palestine. A further 13.3% pointed to its expansionist ambitions in the region, while 9.1% cited its ongoing oppression of Palestinians. Religious motivations accounted for just 2.3% of responses, down from nearly 7% in 2019/20.” Also: “US policy toward Palestine was viewed negatively by 76% of respondents, the worst rating of any country surveyed. Britain [60% negative], France [58%], and Germany [55%] fared poorly as well.”
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