Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Sultan will soon arrive in Washington for crucial talks with US President Donald Trump. Among the deals on the table, the most controversial is Saudi Arabia’s request for 48 stealth F-35 fifth generation jets.
The Saudis have been watching Israel’s use of F-35s, in Syria, Yemen and Iran. The fact that Iran paid a huge price when it lost virtually all its air defenses, certainly encouraged the Saudis to ask for these jets for its arsenal.
For the record, Israel has a current fleet of F-35I Adir (”Mighty One”) jets and plans to increase the number to 75, assuming it can finance the increase.
According to reliable reports, the policy leadership at the Pentagon, including Secretary of War (Defense) Pete Hegseth, plan to approve the sale.
But there is a speed bump in the deal. If the report by the New York Times is accurate, the Defense Intelligence Agency has raised a red flag on the deal, fearing that key technology in the F-35 and operational information will leak to China. The alleged report is not available yet to the public as it is classified, but apparently some senior officials in the government, probably at the Pentagon, have leaked general information about the report to the press.
Hegseth will not be happy about the leak, nor about DIA taking issue with his decisions.
Last August, Pete Hegseth fired a general, Lt. Gen. Jeffrey Kruse who headed the agency, after the DIA’s initial intelligence assessment of U.S. damage to Iranian nuclear sites, leaked to the press, angered President Donald Trump.
The DIA now has an Acting Head, Major General Constantin E. Nicolet. His agency and the General may now be called on the carpet to explain why they put out a study critical of the pending Saudi F-35 sale. Congress will now demand to be briefed by the DIA on the classified study and opposition to the sale may grow on Capitol Hill.
The F-35 deal is worth many billions of dollars and fits into a Trump-Sultan deal last May that committed Saudi Arabia to spend $142 billion on US weapons and support. It is possible the F-35 jet sale might be around $10 billion, plus future support that could double or triple the amount.
The proposed sale has caused concern in Israel. Israel is the only F-35 operator in the Middle East. In Israel’s view, Saudi acquisition of the jets threatens to change the regional balance of power. Beyond Saudi Arabia, Israel is also concerned that the US might finally agree to sell the same jets to Turkey, a significant regional power that is openly hostile to Israel.
The US is legally obliged to support Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge (QME). QME was codified into law by Congress in 2008. This law requires the President to assess and ensure that any potential arms sales to other countries in the region do not adversely affect Israel’s QME.
There is sure to be bargaining on how Israel’s QME issue can be resolved. Some think that Israel will ask for priority in the US emerging 6th generation fighter program, known as NGAD (Next Generation Air Dominance). NGAD includes the F-47 fighter jet with the first flight targeted for 2028, with a possible entry into operational service in the early to mid-2030s. The timetable assumes the program is funded by Congress in future and if the F-47 and other hardware and software is successful.
Trump may try a different approach, seeking to convince Saudi Arabia to join the Abraham Accords. The current Saudi government is unlikely to accede to Trump’s request, but may offer other political arrangements that are attractive to Israel. It is well-known that there has been security cooperation between Israel and Saudi Arabia, some of it brokered through CENTCOM. The Saudis have used their radars and air defenses to help Israel confront a heavy Iranian missile and drone attack. Likewise the Saudis have probably cooperated with Israel against Yemen’s Houthis, which the Saudis see as a threat to the Saudi-friendly government of Yemen and to Saudi Arabia.
How Credible is the DIA Warning?
Congress will have a lot to say about arms sales to Saudi Arabia and will press for information from the DIA.
From what we now know, DIA argues that there is a big risk that China will gain access to F-35 technology if the planes are sold to Saudi Arabia.
The weakness of DIA’s argument is just how much F-35 technology China has already got from cyber espionage. One public report, regarding the case of aerospace executive Su Bin, claims that tens of thousands of documents on the F-22 and F-35 were stolen through his efforts and Chinese hackers. Chinese surreptitious acquisitions of US stealth fighter technology even includes recruiting American and allied pilots.
Saudi Arabia does have defense ties to China. Saudi Arabia has bought intermediate range ballistic missiles from China (apparently with conventional warheads). The first batch of DF-3s was purchased in the 1980s. More recently, Saudi Arabia bought DF-21 missiles. The DF-21 is a road-mobile ballistic missile with a range of over 2,150 km (1,336 miles). China has modified this missile, turning into what they call a “carrier killer.” China is providing Saudi Arabia significant technical assistance and manufacturing help for solid rocket fuel for locally produced weapons.
China also is providing important drone technology and equipment to Saudi Arabia including the sale of the Wing Loong II (Winged Dragon) and CH-4, a medium endurance, drone. Saudi Arabia is not the only Middle Eastern country buying these drones. The UAE also buys the Wing Loong and has supplied them to the opposition Libyan National Army (LNA) and to Ethiopia. The UAE drones are equipped with the Chinese-made Blue Arrow 7, allegedly similar to the Hellfire.
In October, 2024 Saudi Arabia purchased 2,503 Hellfire missiles from the United States. The US said the Hellfire’s would be used on Saudi Arabia’s AH-64 Apache Helicopters. They could also be adapted to the Wing Loong.
Congress will need to evaluate the level of China’s penetration of Saudi Arabia’s defense industries, the safeguards that might be applicable to the F-35, and the impact of the sale of the F-35 on the regional power balance. Should the tender collapse for political reasons, there is nothing to stop Saudi Arabia from buying stealth jets from China, or from Russia.
China is pushing export sales of its J-35 stealth twin-engine fighter. Pakistan may purchase the J-35, although that is not certain.
Russia is anxious for sales of its Su-57 and is currently in talks with India on a possible coproduction deal of some version of this platform. However, Russia is constrained due to its ties to Iran and Russian plans to eventually supply Iran with advanced jets, most likely the Su-35 which is not a stealth platform. Given the tenuous political relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran, it is not very likely Russia will make any offers to the Saudis. But anything can happen.
No matter how you look at it, the sale of F-35s to Saudi Arabia is not a “slam dunk.” Congress will have to be sold on any deal, Israel’s concerns need to be addressed, and Trump will pressure Saudi Arabia to move toward reconciliation with Israel, including accepting the Abraham accords framework.
Source: author;s blog
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