The currently-set balance inspires optimism
Parliamentary elections were held in Iraq on Tuesday, November 11. In some parts of the country, such as Kurdistan, voting has officially been launched ahead of ficially set schedule.
According to the results of the Independent Iraqi High Election Commission (IHEC), the Reconstruction & Development Coalition, led by current Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani took the first place with 1,317,446 votes, gaining 46 seats in parliament. In second place (33 seats) is the Sunni Progress bloc (Taqaddum), led by former Parliament Speaker Mohammed al-Halbousi. The third place went to the Shiite State of Law coalition, led by former Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki (28 seats), followed by the Sadiqoum Movement of Qais Khazali (27 seats) and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (26 seats). The Shiite organization Badr won 18 seats and the Shiite National State Forces Alliance (Ammar al-Hakim) won the same number. The Patriotic Union of Kudistan (PUK) has 17 seats. The Sunni Azm Alliance won 15 seats, while the other parties and movements won less than ten.
Prior to the start of the elections, there were certain concerns, as the well-known Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr called for a boycott. However, the official turnout of 56% exceeded the required minimum figures, which prevented al-Sadr from delegitimizing the electoral process.
In total, more than 21 million people in Iraq have the right to vote. A total of 31 alliances, 38 political parties, 23 independent candidates and 56 quota candidates competed for 329 parliamentary seats, including the nine reserved for minority groups.
It should be noted that Iraq uses a proportional representation system based on the Sainte-Laguë method in which the country’s provinces serve as constituencies. Under this system, total party votes are divided by a fixed quotient to allocate parliamentary seats.
The distribution of seats and the turnout in the parliamentary election law have divided Iraq into 18 different constituencies, with each province allocated a number of seats based on its population, which has limited competition within a single constituency.
Government formation and the balance of interests
As can be seen from the results, the Shiites of Iraq have an overwhelming majority (184 mandates), but not all of them support the figure of al-Sudani, who claims to re-occupy the prime minister’s chair. Therefore, he will first have to form a majority in parliament, and then, after a successful re-election, begin to create a new cabinet.
The elections themselves were held relatively calmly and were well appreciated by both observers and external forces.
A spokesman for the UN Secretary-General, Stephane Dujarric, said that “Antonio Guterres emphasizes the importance of a timely and peaceful government formation process that reflects the will of the Iraqi people and addresses their aspirations for stability and development ” Dujarric clarified that the UN reaffirms its “commitment to supporting Iraq on its journey toward consolidating democratic gains and fulfilling the aspirations of all Iraqis for a peaceful and prosperous future.”
Congratulations also came from the United States and Iran. This demonstrates that despite the opposing interests of these countries in Iraq, they are satisfied with the current balance of power. Although Washington clearly would not like to see Badr, Kata’ib Hezbollah and other forces with an ideology similar to the Islamic Revolution in neighboring Iran in parliament
During his rule, al-Sudani also maintained a balance between neighboring countries such as Iran, Turkey and the Arab Gulf states, as well as other players, including the United States, China, the EU and Russia. He will probably be able to convince colleagues from other parties of the need to follow this course in the future.
The special situation in Kurdistan
Since Kurdistan has a certain degree of autonomy, it also has its own parliament (one hundred seats), and elections to it were held in October 2024. Since none of the parties received a majority of votes in the October elections, negotiations have been underway since then between the ruling parties, The Kurdistan Democratic Party (won 39 seats) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) (23 places) on the formation of a ruling coalition, but the government has not yet been formed. As a result, the Kurdish legislature met only once, in December, when lawmakers were sworn in.
Kurdistan Islamic Union won seven seats then. There is also the Kurdistan Justice Group (Komell), whose leader Ali Bapir called for election integrity and national unity in the parliamentary elections in Iraq, warning against “manipulation” and interference in the vote. Previously, the party held ministerial posts in the KRG (Kurdistan Regional Government). However, in recent years, its influence has declined, and it won one seat in the elections in Iraq in 2021 and two in the Kurdistan Region in 2024.
The Sulaymaniyah -based New Generation Movement, the main opposition in the Kurdistan region, which won nine seats in the Iraqi parliamentary elections in 2021 and won 15 seats in the Kurdistan regional parliamentary elections in October 2024, suffered a serious defeat as the number of seats was reduced to three in the parliamentary elections. The party’s leader and founder, Shaswar Abdulwahid, was imprisoned by security forces in mid-August and sentenced to five months in prison on charges of threatening others, their property or reputation. The People’s Front (Baray Gal) whose leader Lahur Talabany has been in prison since the end of August and is also based in Sulaymaniyah, did not receive any seats at all.
In general, it is noticeable that the Kurdistan Democratic Party, which is controlled by the Barzani tribe and has been focused on cooperation with Turkey for many years, despite the activity of the now-dissolved Kurdistan Workers’ Party, whose headquarters were in the north of Iraq in the remote Qandil Mountains.
If the issue with the Kurdish paramilitary groups that caused concern has actually been resolved, the problem remains with Sunni extremists, including ISIS cells (banned in Russia). And the West will continue to be threatened by the Shiite militia, which has close ties to Iran and the Resistance (Lebanese Hezbollah, Yemeni Houthis and the Palestinian political movement) in general.
The new government will have to continue to solve the first problem. As for the West’s attempts to influence political processes, it remains to be hoped that the new cabinet in Iraq will be pragmatic enough not to believe the false promises of officials from the United States and the EU, who continue to make ultimatum demands and spread disinformation. The main direction of pressure will remain the demand to disarm the paramilitary Shiite formations. However, al-Sudani openly stated on the eve of the elections that this would be possible only when American troops left the country. Although the withdrawal process of US occupation forces from Anbar province and Baghdad International Airport began in August, it is still far from complete withdrawal.
Comments