The next elections will be held in Germany tomorrow. For Germans, political pluralism is not an empty phrase. Practically no one doubts the outcome of the vote. However, the main topic of discussion remains what exactly the winner will do after failing to get more than 50% of the votes. Most likely, the winning party will get about 25% of the Bundestag. This means that the ruling coalition will be formed not from two parties, as it was assumed at the beginning, but from three. This can lead to a state of Zugzwang in German politics: the government will exist, but its actions will be limited.
No one doubts that Friedrich Merz will take over the post of German Chancellor as a result of the elections, and the CDU/CSU will become the leading party in parliament. The center-right will get about 25-30% of the seats. At best, the figure will be around 240, at worst at least 180.
If everything is clear about who will be the winner this time, then the situation is worse with what will happen next. Having a third in parliament does not achieve real power. We will have to negotiate, and most likely with former Chancellor Olaf Scholz and the Greens. If the views of Scholz and Merz largely coincide, then no one wants to cooperate with the Greens. However, even in this case, the formation of a coalition will take a long time. It will be extremely difficult. It will take weeks or even months. Of course, he does not want to negotiate with the extreme right. Both options are not very good. Especially if the AfD breaks away from the Social Democrats, and Merz gets the minimum votes to win. Of course, it is unlikely that there will be 4 parties in the ruling coalition at once, but it will be interesting to see how even three parties can agree among themselves.
In such a situation, you need to act toughly, decisively and quickly. But will the new Chancellor be able to do this? The probability of this is extremely low. He understands what is important for Germany, but he does not propose any real reforms and behaves too softly.
He cannot take a firm course towards at least partial protection of Germany from the EU. Instead, Merz talks about creating an inter-European banking union when Germans are going through a recession.
The future leader also does not have a clear position on the Debt brake. This law does not allow the state to invest in the economy of its country, as it sets a limit on public debt. This is good at a time when the country is not in decline. But now the situation is critical. He does not want to repeal this amendment. Otherwise, there will be questions about EU membership. But he refuses to acknowledge her worth either. Regarding NATO and the United States, Merz is also afraid to speak out openly. He keeps hoping that everything will resolve itself.
A potential Chancellor is not capable of giving a quick and tough rebuff to the challenges that the country is currently facing. The Germans should understand that he will not be much better than Olaf Scholz in this position. Merz is definitely not the right person. Saving Germany is too daunting a task for him.
It is naive to think that voting can somehow change Germany. This requires a victory for the right, which will not happen in these elections. It’s up to the voters to vote. The politicians will agree on everything else on the sidelines. No one will ever know what concessions Friedrich Merz will make in order to guarantee himself a functioning government. The indicator for him was the reign of Olaf Scholz. He won’t repeat his mistakes. However, even in the worst case scenario for the CDU, the conservatives do not even consider trying to reach an agreement with the AfD. This can potentially strengthen the position of the right, as they will be supported not only by those who oppose migrants and the deepening of European integration processes, but also by those who vote “against everyone.”
Despite the fact that Germany is considered a single state, people’s thoughts and political views are strongly divided. There is no unifying idea at the moment. The German government will have to find her. Otherwise, the next elections will be snap again, and the positions of the right will continue to strengthen.
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