The Ukraine War As A Turning Point: The Rise Of A New Ideological Challenge To Liberalism

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States and its Western allies have sought to consolidate a unipolar world order based on liberal democratic values and free-market capitalism. This vision was famously articulated by Francis Fukuyama in The End of History and the Last Man (1992), where he argued that liberal democracy had emerged as the ultimate form of governance. However, three decades later, the global landscape tells a different story—one where the limitations and contradictions of liberalism are increasingly evident, and new ideological and geopolitical forces are reshaping the international order.

The Ukraine war has emerged as a pivotal moment in this transformation. What began as a geopolitical conflict has exposed deeper fractures in the Western-led order, highlighting the disparity between the ideological rhetoric of liberalism and the pragmatic realities of global power politics. Today, we are witnessing the rise of a post-liberal paradigm that challenges the core assumptions of Western dominance, led by an emerging alliance between Russia, China, and Iran.

From Unipolarity to Strategic Disillusionment

When Russia launched its military operation in Ukraine in 2022, the West responded with a unified front of sanctions, military aid to Kyiv, and diplomatic isolation of Moscow. The expectation in Washington and Brussels was clear: Russia would collapse under economic pressure, Vladimir Putin’s regime would face internal unrest, and the liberal democratic model would once again prove its superiority. However, after more than three years of war, these expectations have not materialized. Instead:

• The Russian economy has adapted to sanctions, forging deeper economic ties with China, India, and the Global South.
• The Ukrainian counteroffensive has failed to achieve its intended objectives, and U.S. officials are now pressuring Kyiv to enter negotiations with Moscow.
• European unity has begun to fracture, with increasing opposition to continued military aid and economic sacrifices.

In essence, the Ukraine war has become a moment of strategic disillusionment for the West. It has demonstrated that the United States can no longer dictate global outcomes as it once did, and that even longtime allies are beginning to hedge their bets against the waning hegemony of the liberal order.

The Crisis of Liberal Ideology: When Pragmatism Overrules Principle

One of the most striking aspects of the Ukraine conflict has been the way it has exposed the contradictions within Western liberalism. The United States, which has long positioned itself as the defender of democracy and sovereignty, has repeatedly sacrificed its stated values for strategic interests:

• The withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, where Washington abandoned its allies after two decades of war, raised questions about its reliability.
• The handling of Ukraine, where U.S. officials encouraged resistance against Russia but are now considering forcing Kyiv into a peace deal, reflects a transactional approach to alliances.
• The Gaza conflict, where Western support for Israel has remained unwavering despite massive civilian casualties, exposes the selective application of human rights principles.

This inconsistency has not gone unnoticed. Countries that were once staunchly aligned with the U.S., such as Saudi Arabia, have adopted more independent foreign policies, refusing to fully comply with Western-led sanctions against Russia and maintaining economic ties with China.

The erosion of trust in liberal internationalism is not just a matter of policy miscalculations—it is a fundamental crisis of legitimacy. As John Mearsheimer, a prominent realist scholar, argues, “Liberal hegemony is unsustainable in a world where states prioritize survival over ideological conformity” (Mearsheimer, 2022). The era when the U.S. could shape the world in its image through moral persuasion alone is coming to an end.

The Rise of a New Ideological and Strategic Axis

While the West grapples with internal divisions and declining influence, an alternative global framework is emerging. Unlike the Cold War, where the world was divided between capitalism and communism, today’s ideological contest is more complex. The rising powers—Russia, China, and Iran—do not share a single ideology, but they are united in their opposition to a U.S.-dominated order. Their challenge is based on:

1. Economic Sovereignty – China’s Belt and Road Initiative and de-dollarization efforts are undermining U.S. financial dominance.
2. Security Realignment – Russia’s military assertiveness has defied NATO expansion, reshaping the European security architecture.
3. Diplomatic Multipolarity – Iran’s strategic partnerships, including its reconciliation with Saudi Arabia, indicate a shift away from U.S.-mediated alliances.

Each of these elements contributes to the formation of a post-liberal, multipolar world. As Wang Hui, a Chinese scholar of global politics, notes, “The West no longer holds a monopoly on defining modernity—alternative models of governance are emerging from the non-Western world” (Hui, 2021).

The Future of Global Order: A Post-Liberal Era?

The key question that arises from these shifts is whether the world is truly entering a post-liberal era. Will liberalism adapt once again, as it has in past crises, or is this the beginning of its irreversible decline?

There are three possible scenarios:

1. Adaptation and Survival – Liberalism, despite its contradictions, has historically been flexible. It may evolve to accommodate multipolarity rather than resisting it outright.
2. Fragmentation and Decline – If internal divisions in the West continue and emerging powers solidify their alternative frameworks, liberalism could fade as the dominant global ideology.
3. Ideological Conflict – The current competition between liberal and post-liberal states could escalate into deeper confrontations, leading to prolonged instability.

Regardless of which path unfolds, one thing is clear: history has not ended. The Ukraine war, rather than reaffirming the inevitability of liberal democracy, has marked the beginning of a new chapter—one in which the future of global governance remains deeply contested.