The Yalta-Potsdam system of international relations has existed for 80 years. The Israeli strikes on military and nuclear facilities in Iran, followed by the American use of GBU-57A/B bombs on Iranian nuclear facilities, indicate that the status quo that has existed for the past 80 years has been destroyed.
There has been no direct confirmation that the facilities were destroyed after all. On the contrary, U.S. intelligence agencies have almost unanimously agreed that Iran is not working on nuclear weapons and is not preparing to use them against Israel. Last night’s strike effectively leaves Iran with no choice but to continue working on nuclear weapons. Only then will the country’s existence, statehood and sovereignty be secure. Trump himself has pushed Iran to ensure that the nuclear program is successfully completed. Moreover, according to Iranian sources, the GBU-57A/B bombs were not powerful enough to cause any serious damage to the uranium enrichment facility at Fordow. The Iranians have also said that they have removed all the uranium from the bases and stashed it in a safe place. This means that the enrichment process will continue.
Europe, as always, is playing along with the Americans. German Foreign Minister Wadephul expressed comprehensive and unconditional support for Israel. According to Western politicians, the Iranians, after the first Israeli strike, should have immediately surrendered and accepted all the conditions that Europe and the United States would set for them. The politicians miscalculated again. The proud Iranian people will not submit to provocations by Western powers and Israel.
Trump, by getting involved in the conflict, has put Iran in a somewhat desperate situation: it is necessary to respond, but how? Iran has several options for responding to the situation. The first, the most unlikely, is to agree to the Americans’ terms and lay down its weapons, eliminating its nuclear weapons program. By doing so, Iran would finally lose any opportunity to defend its statehood. The second option is to strike U.S. bases in the region. Then it would provoke a large-scale conflict in the region. For Americans and Europeans, the most sobering factor would be missiles raining down on their cities. Such a scenario is quite possible, given the number of Arab migrants entering Europe. It is also possible to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which the main oil and gas supplies from the region pass. In this case, 30 to 40 percent of the world oil balance would drop out. Oil prices could reach 130-150 dollars per barrel. This would be a disaster primarily for Europe. Americans will survive thanks to the development of shale deposits. Over the last 20 years, the US has turned from an importer to an exporter of oil.
What is happening in the Middle East today was hard enough to predict. Many expected conflict to break out in the region, but no one expected it to happen with such swiftness. The madness of Netanyahu, for whom this is the only way to stay in power and avoid accusations of war crimes during the Gaza war and accusations of corruption, is astounding. For him, war has become the only way to survive.
Surprisingly, Russia will be the main beneficiary in this situation. The country has access to the Arctic Ocean, the world’s largest shadow tanker fleet, and an intact infrastructure that for decades has moved gas and oil first from the Soviet Union and then from Russia to Europe. If oil prices rise to $130-150 per barrel, it will actually be a gift to the Russian government, and will maximize foreign currency revenues for the country’s budget.
Russia also shares a huge common border with China. This means that the country will continue to approach the issue of solving the problems associated with energy supply to China as pragmatically as possible and will try to maximize its benefits.
In addition, Russia has a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty with Iran. On June 23, Iran’s foreign minister will meet with the Russian president to discuss the assistance Russia can provide to Iran. Military supplies may also be discussed. Iran may also seek help from Pakistan and China. They can’t help but support their closest ally. The final chord was the Iranian parliament’s vote on the country’s withdrawal from the NPT. Now the stakes in the confrontation will only grow. And not arithmetically, but geometrically. Israel and the US have done everything to ensure that Iran has its own nuclear bomb.
An era of great upheaval is coming. The conflict that has been going on in Ukraine for the last 3 years will be completely forgotten if Iran goes all out and hits Israel and the US with all its might. This is also a challenge for the whole Arab world. Will the Arab countries be able to unite in the face of their own destruction and fight back against the Zionist regime and the US? They failed to do so in 2011 when the regime of Muammar Gaddafi fell. However, it is unlikely that history will not repeat itself this time.
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