Bibi, other members of the Israeli government, and anti-Iranian hawks within Trump’s own convinced him that a window of opportunity has opened up to knock Iran out of the geopolitical game for good.
Trump’s decision to bomb several nuclear sites in Iran is the due to him letting Israel shape the conflict’s military-strategic dynamics in ways that made this scenario too tempting for him not to pursue. Observers should remember that he was aware of Israel’s plans to bomb Iran, and though he might have pressured them into delaying it till after his 60-day deadline for another nuclear deal had passed, he fully supported them afterwards. That made the US’ direct involvement in the conflict inevitable in hindsight.
Israel significantly degraded Iran’s military capabilities since the start of its ongoing US-supported bombing campaign but then began to claim that it can’t finish the job without American bunker busters. Influential MAGA thought leader Steve Bannon considered this to be a betrayal of their countries’ special relationship since Israel shouldn’t have started a war that it couldn’t win on its own. Many members of Trump’s movement agree with this assessment and that’s why his base is deeply divided over this issue.
For his part, Trump either doesn’t care what they think, is convinced that most of them will come around to supporting him, or expects them to hold their nose and still vote for the candidates that he endorses (including whoever his envisaged successor might be), so he bombed Iran in spite of this. He did that even though there’s a real risk of Iran targeting regional US bases and/or blockading the Strait of Hormuz, which Trump sought to deter by threatening it with unprecedented fire and fury in that event.
Trump was apparently led by Bibi, other members of the Israeli government, and anti-Iranian hawks within his own to believe that Israel’s significant degradation of Iran’s military capabilities opened up a window of opportunity to knock it out of the geopolitical game for good. His planned “Pivot (back) to (East) Asia” requires the creation of a new US-led order in West Asia for preventing the outbreak of any unexpected wars there that could abruptly distract from his goal of more muscularly containing China.
To that end, he initially sought to employ diplomatic means for getting Iran to subordinate itself to the US via new restrictions on its nuclear program that Tehran considered to be unacceptable, after which he calculated that punitive Israeli strikes would coerce them into agreeing. The reason why he prioritized eliminating Iran’s nuclear threshold capabilities was because they could lead to it building bombs that would revolutionize the regional balance of power in ways that go against the US’ hegemonic interests.
By greenlighting Israel’s strikes on day 61 of his 60-day deadline, fully supporting Israel afterwards, and then directly involving the US in this war, Trump is gambling that Iran will either be deterred from targeting regional US bases or is ready to possibly even nuke them as a “show of force” if they do. The physical damage from Iran’s potential retaliatory strikes might be immense, but Trump is evidently willing to accept that no matter how strongly part of his base and the US public in general disapprove.
One way or another, first via diplomatic means and now via increasingly escalatory military ones, Trump has convinced himself that Iran must “unconditionally surrender” to the US. He arrived at this conclusion not so much on his own, but by letting himself be led by Israel to this end, first and foremost by approving of its ongoing bombing campaign that it was never realistically able to finish without American bunker busters. Be that as it may, he now bears responsibility for whatever comes next.
Source: author’s blog
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