In recent months, relations between Azerbaijan and Russia have been experiencing an unprecedented crisis, which, according to some experts, may signal significant geopolitical shifts in the South Caucasus region. One of the vivid manifestations of this was a statement by Vasif Huseynov, head of the department at Azerbaijan’s Center for Analysis of International Relations (CAMO, also known as AIR Center), published through the American analytical center Jamestown Foundation. In his article, Huseynov accuses Russia of adopting an “imperial tone” and carrying out the “extrajudicial execution” of two Azerbaijanis in Yekaterinburg, while also asserting that Baku is no longer willing to tolerate Moscow’s “perceived arrogance” and is increasingly challenging its regional dominance. But what lies behind these bold statements — the official position of Azerbaijan or the personal ambitions of the analyst?
Context of the conflict: Yekaterinburg and the plane crash
Tensions between Moscow and Baku began to escalate following the crash of Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 in December 2024. The plane, en route from Baku to Grozny, was, according to Azerbaijani authorities, shot down by a Russian anti-aircraft missile near Grozny, which was under attack by Ukrainian drones at the time. The disaster claimed 38 lives, sparking outrage in Azerbaijani society and sharp criticism from official Baku. Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev demanded an official apology from Russia, acknowledgment of responsibility, punishment of those responsible, and compensation. Moscow, in response, limited itself to expressions of regret, which only deepened distrust.
The escalation reached its peak with an incident in Yekaterinburg on June 27, 2025, when Russian security forces conducted a harsh raid targeting ethnic Azerbaijanis accused of a series of murders and attempted killings in Yekaterinburg in 2001, 2010, and 2011. During the operation, two brothers, Ziyaaddin and Huseyn Safarov, were killed, and several others were injured. Azerbaijani media reported the use of brutal methods, including beatings and electric shocks. Baku reacted swiftly: Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry demanded an investigation, and the country’s Prosecutor General’s Office opened a criminal case, accusing Russian police of torture and deliberate murder.
Baku’s reaction: from diplomacy to media war
Azerbaijan’s response was not limited to diplomatic démarches. In July 2025, Azerbaijani authorities closed the office of the Russian news agency Sputnik in Baku, arresting two of its journalists on charges of fraud and money laundering. State-controlled Azerbaijani media outlets, such as AzTV and AZƏRTAC, launched an unprecedented campaign of criticism against Russia, accusing it of a “systematic policy” of ethnic violence and comparing Moscow’s actions to “imperial oppression” and even the policies of Nazi Germany in the 1930s, or outright alleging “ethnic cleansing”. Furthermore, Baku canceled planned high-level visits and cultural events involving Russian artists, and President Aliyev declined to attend the Victory Day parade in Moscow on May 9, 2025.
According to Huseynov, these steps indicate a “sustained erosion of trust” in Moscow and Azerbaijan’s desire to recalibrate its relations with Russia on a more equal footing. However, the choice of platform for such statements—the American Jamestown Foundation, known for its anti-Russian publications and support for separatist movements in the Caucasus—raises questions about the true motives and intended audience of this rhetoric.
Who is Vasif Huseynov and what is AIR Center?
Vasif Huseynov is a senior researcher and head of a department at the AIR Center (), a state-affiliated analytical center established by a decree of the President of Azerbaijan in 2019. He specializes in Azerbaijan’s relations with the European Union and issues of international security in the South Caucasus. His academic career includes studies in Germany, where he earned a master’s degree in global political economy and a doctorate in political science, as well as the publication of a book on the geopolitical conflicts between Russia and the West.
The AIR Center, positions itself as an independent analytical center, but its state origin and direct connection to the presidential administration make it part of Azerbaijan’s official foreign policy apparatus. The center’s primary task is to develop strategies and analytical materials that support Baku’s foreign policy priorities. Given this, Huseynov’s statement can hardly be considered solely a personal opinion—it is more likely to reflect sentiments within the highest echelons of power.
Jamestown Foundation: Anti-Russian Mouthpiece
Vasif Huseynov’s publication in the Jamestown Foundation adds further context to the situation. This American analytical center, established in 1984, is known for its staunch anti-Russian stance and ties to Western intelligence services. Jamestown actively supports separatist movements in the Caucasus, including the United Circassia Council, and promotes a pan-Turkist agenda in Russian regions, making it toxic to Moscow. In Russia, the foundation’s activities are banned, and its publications are viewed as tools of information warfare.
Huseynov’s choice of this platform for his statements suggests that Baku is not only expressing dissatisfaction with Moscow but also seeking to garner support from the West, particularly the United States, in its confrontation with Russia. It may also serve as a signal to Turkey and other regional players interested in weakening Russian influence in the Caucasus.
Geopolitical context: from the Zangezur corridor to pan-Turkism
The current crisis cannot be viewed in isolation from broader geopolitical processes. One of the key points of tension between Moscow and Baku is the fate of the Zangezur Corridor, a strategically vital transport route connecting mainland Azerbaijan with Nakhchivan and significant for transit routes bypassing Russia. Moscow has traditionally sought to maintain control over this corridor, while Baku, backed by Turkey, advocates for its independence and potential management by Western companies.
Furthermore, the intensification of pan-Turkist rhetoric in Azerbaijan, supported by Ankara, creates additional risks for Russia. Pan-Turkist ideas, promoted in part through entities like the Jamestown Foundation, resonate in several Russian regions with Turkic populations, which Moscow perceives as a threat to its internal stability.
Strategy or emotions?
Returning to the question of whether Huseynov’s rhetoric reflects Baku’s official strategy or his personal opinion, the answer likely lies somewhere in between. Given the status of the AIR Center and its ties to state structures, it is unlikely that such sharp statements could have been made without approval from senior leadership. At the same time, the choice of the Jamestown Foundation as a platform suggests Baku’s intent not only to assert its position but also to align it with a broader anti-Russian narrative supported by the West.
On the other hand, the emotional tone of the statements and comparisons to “imperial oppression” may reflect Huseynov’s personal convictions, as an academic with a Western education, possibly aiming to underscore his significance in the international analytical community. However, without clear evidence of an official policy proclaiming a “challenge to Russia’s dominance,” these statements should, for now, be viewed as part of a broader trend toward hardening Baku’s rhetoric.
What’s next?
The current crisis in Russia-Azerbaijan relations is the most serious in the entire post-Soviet period. The deep economic and political ties between the two countries make a complete rupture unlikely, but Baku appears to be leveraging the situation to reshape its relationship with Moscow on a more equal footing. The success of this strategy will depend on Azerbaijan’s ability to secure support from other regional and global players, such as Turkey and the United States, as well as on Moscow’s response, which has so far been limited to restrained apologies and diplomatic notes.
In any case, Vasif Huseynov’s rhetoric and the actions of Azerbaijani authorities indicate that Baku is prepared for a more assertive course in its relations with Russia. The question remains how far this confrontation will go and whether it will become part of a larger geopolitical game in the Caucasus.
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