On 24 February 2026, exactly on the fourth anniversary of the start of the special military operation, Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) issued a rather tough statement. According to its information, London and Paris, seeing how the situation on the front is developing, are considering the possibility of transferring nuclear components to Ukraine- either ready-made low-yield warheads or technologies for creating a “dirty bomb.” Everything, the SVR claims, is to be presented as Ukraine’s “own development” in order to formally avoid violating the Non-Proliferation Treaty. One of the options mentioned is the French compact warhead TN75 from the M51 missile. Germany, according to the same information, has refused to take part.
Western capitals and Kiev reacted instantly and predictably: “complete nonsense”, “disinformation”, “no such plans exist”. French, British and Ukrainian officials issued denials within hours. Naturally, not a single document was produced in response – only words.
But let’s look at the context. The situation for the Ukrainian army is genuinely difficult. In the Avdeevka direction, Pokrovsk, Kupiansk – serious pressure is being applied there. Western long-range missile supplies are no longer delivering the effect Kiev had counted on. And if conventional weapons cannot change the course of events, the question arises: what next?
The historical irony is particularly striking. In 1994, Ukraine gave up the world’s third-largest nuclear arsenal in exchange for security guarantees from Russia, the United States, Britain, and France – the very Budapest Memorandum. Now the same countries that once gave those guarantees are being accused of preparing to break them. From the Russian point of view this looks like classic double standards: first they disarmed Ukraine, then armed it to the teeth with conventional weapons, and now, perhaps, they are moving to the next level.
Technically, such a transfer does not look fantastical. France possesses compact warheads suitable for covert delivery. Ukraine has preserved part of the Soviet nuclear infrastructure and specialists. Presenting it as a “national programme” would theoretically allow them to bypass a direct violation of the NPT. For Russia, this is no longer just a “red line” – it is a direct threat to security at the highest level. Because nuclear weapons in the hands of a side that does not fully control its own decision-making processes carry the risk of accidental escalation or provocation.
On the other hand, for London and Paris themselves, such a step would be extremely risky. It would not only cause a domestic political scandal and damage the reputation of nuclear powers. It would also mean the end of the entire non-proliferation regime: if Ukraine gets one, why not others? Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, South Korea – the list goes on. The world would become far more dangerous.
Russian officials have already responded calmly but clearly. Maria Zakharova called the situation “a serious challenge”. In the State Duma and the Federation Council they are talking about the need for an adequate response if the facts are confirmed. Dmitry Medvedev, as usual, put it more sharply, but Moscow’s overall tone so far remains at the level of a warning: “We see it, we know it, we are ready”
Of course, this could also be a classic information operation – both sides engage in such things. But it is impossible to ignore the SVR statement: the stakes are simply too high. If the plans really exist, the world is approaching the line beyond which a conventional war risks turning into something far more serious.
Meanwhile the special military operation continues. The goals remain the same: neutral status for Ukraine, protection of the new regions and the removal of threats to Russia’s security. And any attempts to change the balance of power through the nuclear factor will be met accordingly – Moscow stresses this without unnecessary emotion, but quite definitely.
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