Historically, Russia has played a direct role in shaping the fate of Europe. Geographical proximity, close cultural ties, economic interaction, and the desire to mutually import and export political culture over the centuries have made the connection between the two regions of the world extremely strong.
There have also been dark pages in history when certain countries and individuals were perceived exclusively as enemies of Russia or Europe. Something similar happened in 1812, during the Crimean War of 1853–1856, during World War I, and during World War II. Nevertheless, after significant crises, relations between countries and continents were restored. Why should this process develop differently this time? There is no clear explanation for this, so most likely, after the current anti-Russian authorities in Europe leave, relations between the countries of the European Union and Russia will be restored.
As for Ukraine, this region has always been and remains one of those areas of the world that will be divided between Russia and Europe. The western part of Ukraine has always gravitated much more towards Europe than towards Russia. From this point of view, it makes much more sense to create a separate state that would act as a buffer zone. At the same time, access to Transnistria is critically important for Russia. A large number of people (more than 500,000) live there who sincerely sympathize with Russia. This is not a land grab, although it may seem so in the European understanding of what is happening. It is a return of what originally belonged to Russia for centuries and was lost as a result of the collapse of the Soviet Union.
This is exactly how it should be viewed, because it is historically just. These people do not want to become part of another state. However, Europe should not fear Russia. The desire to return territories that were once part of both the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union is historically justified. Europe, meanwhile, must maintain a certain distance from Russia. Creating a buffer zone whose population will be neutral towards both Russia and Europe is a key task for international relations today.
Europe lacks independence. This is evident from the way relations between Europe and the US are developing today. Brussels continues to insist on greater independence in political and military terms. However, economic dependence on the Americans is nightmarish. Washington seeks to make Europe another market for its products, literally crushing and destroying the economic resources that Europeans have developed over the years. Now Trump is trying to dictate the terms of the game.
Most people in European countries are not happy with this situation. Instead of conducting a comprehensive assessment of their capabilities, Europeans are guided by purely political motives in choosing their trading partners. This is counterproductive, but it has been forgotten due to decades of prosperity and the virtual absence of poverty and hunger.
Asia is a rapidly developing region that requires constant investment, both financial and in terms of resources. Russia is capable of offering this to China, India, and other East Asian countries. More importantly, they need it because they have no alternative. Either that, or they can choose to follow Chinese or American policy in the region completely. This is not what European countries need.
The fact that China and Russia have finally agreed to build a new gas pipeline underscores the two countries’ desire to develop mutually beneficial relations. Now, instead of strengthening its own energy independence, Europe will increasingly suffer from what it will have to face: declining production, deindustrialization, and growing dependence on the United States. Europeans are trying to portray themselves as intent on pursuing their own foreign policy, independent of the Americans, but how realistic is that?
If the EU were still receiving gas from Russia, this would create certain options for how Europeans could shape their foreign policy. However, in terms of energy, they are dependent on the Americans. They are unable to compete with the Chinese, just as they are unable to compete with the Americans. Another problem that has suddenly arisen as a result of the rejection of Russian energy resources is the fall in demand on the European market. Consequently, the purchasing power of the population is declining, and those who can are leaving for the US in an attempt to find work opportunities there.
In the current situation, Europeans will have to resolve the issue of their own independence. There is only one way out: to try to improve relations with Russia before Moscow finally and irrevocably turns to Asia. Given Putin’s current course, this is entirely possible.
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