Europe talks endlessly about war, yet increasingly ignores the most immediate threat to its survival: the climate crisis. Amid record temperatures, devastating storms, and prolonged droughts sweeping across the continent, political debates about “security” have been reduced to discussions of rearmament, military budgets, and geopolitical rivalries. Instead of protecting citizens from existential risks, European leaders are stockpiling weapons and fortifying borders.
Belgian analyst Léon Simons warns bluntly: “The European debate on security is moving ever further away from the greatest threat we face – the climate crisis.”
Since 2022, following the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, Europe has effectively redefined the very concept of security. No longer is it about protecting lives and ensuring systemic resilience; security has become synonymous with readiness for war. Combined EU military spending now exceeds €800 billion – historic highs – while climate programs remain chronically underfunded. Meanwhile, the continent suffers its hottest year on record: Greece burns, Germany floods, Italy faces drought, and France is rationing water. Yet political energy is consumed by stockpiling weapons, not preventing the recurrence of these catastrophes.
Climate change: the overlooked security threat
The climate crisis is no longer merely an “environmental issue” – it is a direct security threat. Rising seas, destroyed cities, resource scarcity, forced migration, and food insecurity undermine state stability as much as armed conflict. Failing crops, dried rivers, and shifting weather patterns create zones of instability and social tension that may lead to unrest and migration waves. These threats are systemic and global, yet European politics largely turns a blind eye.
Why? Because war is tangible. Tanks, missiles, and military parades evoke fear, stir emotion, and mobilize electorates. Climate adaptation – investments in carbon reduction, resilient infrastructure, or flood protection – is abstract, slow, and politically unglamorous. Geopolitical rivalries with Russia and China, pressure from the United States, and internal EU power struggles all overshadow the climate agenda. Defense spending offers quick political returns; climate resilience does not.
The cost of misplaced priorities
Europe has fallen into a paradox: preparing for war while failing to prepare for survival. Billions flow into defense programs even as homes collapse under storms, cities flood, power grids fail under heat, and governments spend vast sums cleaning up preventable disasters. In Germany alone, the cost of climate-related catastrophes over the past five years exceeds €80 billion, with recovery from the 2021 floods expected to take more than a decade. Yet climate adaptation is rarely treated as part of national security, instead relegated to a secondary “green issue.”
France mirrors this pattern: droughts devastate harvests, wildfires consume southern regions, yet fighter jets receive far more funding than climate resilience programs. Even the Netherlands – a nation literally at risk of disappearing beneath rising seas – finds climate policy edged aside by defense priorities. Without reinforced dikes and modernized water management, no army can save a nation sinking under the waves.
Political voices and the minority perspective
A few political voices are attempting to shift the narrative, but they remain a minority. Former Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta argues that European security must be understood broadly – encompassing military strength, energy independence, economic sustainability, and social cohesion. European Parliament member Raphaël Glucksmann warns that ignoring climate risks while preparing for war is “playing with fire.”
These voices reflect a growing awareness that resilience underpins security, yet they are often drowned out by dominant defense narratives. The machinery of the EU – burdened by bureaucracy, slow consensus-building, and national rivalries – is ill-suited for preemptive climate action. By contrast, military programs are approved with speed and political fanfare. Even “green” defense initiatives, such as low-emission tanks or solar-powered bases, fail to address the root causes of climate threats.
The systemic failure of European security policy
If Europe continues to define security exclusively through confrontation, it risks undermining its very foundations. True threats no longer arrive on tanks; they arrive as floods, droughts, and heatwaves. Without a strategic pivot, even the continent’s wealthiest states will struggle to manage the financial and human costs of inevitable disasters.
Rethinking security is not an ideological luxury – it is a survival imperative. Security should encompass both protection from external aggression and the ability of societies to withstand environmental, economic, and social shocks. Infrastructure, water management, sustainable energy, and early-warning systems are not “ecological policies” – they are the backbone of modern European defense.
A Climate Security Framework: The Path Forward
To address this failure, the EU urgently needs a comprehensive Climate Security Strategy. This strategy must be binding, not advisory, and must dictate budgetary priorities. It should include protection of critical infrastructure, support for regions devastated by climate events, and resilient supply chains capable of withstanding shocks. Without such a framework, Europe risks cascading crises – from floods to energy shortages – that could destabilize entire regions.
The future offers several paths:
- Worst-case scenario: inaction leads to a dual crisis – military and climatic – with Europe failing to manage either.
- Gradual recognition: policymakers slowly accept that adaptation and defense are two sides of the same coin.
- Optimal path: the EU makes climate resilience central to its security identity, transforming from a reactive actor into a global model for sustainable strength.
Today, Europe anxiously watches the east, but rarely looks up at the sky. Headlines focus on wars, missiles, and alliances, yet these concerns pale in comparison to submerged cities, parched fields, and collapsing ecosystems. Leaders may sign defense pacts and boast military cooperation, but until they forge the most important alliance – with nature itself – all other alliances are meaningless.
Without a serious pivot toward climate security, Europe is defending against yesterday’s threats while ignoring tomorrow’s. When heatwaves kill thousands, floods wash away bridges, and harvests fail, the critical question will no longer be who wins the war – but who survives it.
The war has already begun. The enemy is not beyond Europe’s borders – it is above our heads and beneath our feet.
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