The role of nuclear power in the world’s energy mix has long been a topic of intense debate among experts, politicians and business leaders. In the mid-20th century, it was seen as a key solution to meeting global energy needs. However, these expectations were undermined by various factors, including the serious consequences of accidents at nuclear power plants. As a result, some developed nations with operational nuclear power plants decided to decommission them, while others, mainly in the developing world, put plans for new nuclear power projects on indefinite hold. Recently, there has been a resurgence of interest in nuclear power, primarily in the Global South.
In this article, the conventional concept of the Global South refers to countries in Central and South America, Africa, the Middle East and Asia (including China and India, but excluding the post-Soviet states and OECD nations). From an energy perspective, the countries in this group are primarily interested in ensuring a stable energy supply as well as energy security and, as a consequence, achieving high growth rates in energy and electricity consumption.
An analysis of numerous global and regional energy development forecasts published in 2023–2024 suggests that by the middle of the 21st century, global electricity demand will increase by around 1.8–2.5 times, depending on the development scenario, which considers such factors as growth rates of the global/regional economy and population, development of new technologies, effectiveness of energy efficiency programs and more. All the forecasts agree that countries of the Global South are projected to contribute around 80% of growth in electricity demand, with China alone making up over 45% of the global growth total. India will play a comparatively smaller role in this process, accounting for around 15–18% of the total increase. The vast majority of forecasters point to a global trend toward the development of renewable energy sources (RES), particularly solar and wind power. The growing use of renewables is expected to facilitate the implementation of low-carbon development programs, to which most nations, including those belonging to the Global South, have pledged their commitment.
However, the crucial element of global energy policy today is recognizing nuclear power as one of the key tools in the effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and, consequently, achieve climate goals. At COP28, twenty-five nations pledged to triple their nuclear power capacity by 2050. This was the reaction of the world community to the fact that the European Commission’s decision to include nuclear power in the “green taxonomy” had cleared all EU bureaucratic hurdles and had finally come into effect. The declaration to triple nuclear power capacity by 2050 aims to accelerate the decarbonization of the global economy and reduce greenhouse gas emissions to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. Some countries of the Global South, such as Ghana, Jamaica, Mongolia, Morocco and the UAE, have also endorsed this declaration.
Electricity generation at traditional large nuclear power plants (NPPs) often comes with higher costs compared to the most common carbon-free alternatives. It also requires significant upfront capital investment and careful site selection. Building large NPPs is a long and sluggish process that can take up to 20 years to complete. This involves addressing a number of complex issues, which include selecting the reactor type, securing nuclear fuel supply and organizing safe disposal of radioactive waste. For most countries of the Global South, ensuring that the planned NPP capacity is compatible with the parameters of the national energy system is especially important. They must also account for the possibility of temporary shutdowns of NPPs without the risk of disrupting the entire grid. Given the limited scale of the national energy sector, the construction of a large NPP seems inexpedient; therefore, exploring new types of nuclear power facilities, such as small modular reactors (SMRs), appears to be a promising solution. For the Global South, SMRs offer considerable advantages, as they significantly reduce construction and payback periods while increasing investment attractiveness.
Unlike solar and wind power, NPPs can operate continuously, requiring only intraday balancing, which leads to significant cost savings due to reduced requirements for redundancy and storage capacity. Another advantage of nuclear power is the immense energy density of the fuel used. One kilogram of uranium enriched to 4%, when fully burned out, produces as much energy as burning 100 tonnes of high-grade coal or 60 tonnes of oil. In addition, nuclear fuel can be reused after regeneration. Fissile material (uranium-235) can be recycled, unlike ash and slag left from fossil fuel combustion. With the development of fast neutron reactor technology, a transition to a closed fuel cycle is possible, eliminating waste entirely.
to be continued
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