Meanwhile Washington’s Negotiation with Russia on Ukraine are Stalled.
If the US and Russia want a deal on Ukraine, Zelensky will need to cooperate. That is far from certain. The result could be that President Trump will not be able to negotiate a Ukraine settlement with Russia and the Ukraine war will continue.
The US and Ukraine will have their first meeting in Riyadh to try and hash out a “peace framework.” If something acceptable and workable is agreed, then President Trump will have something he can take to the Russians. If nothing is accomplished, or the “peace framework” is unrealistic, then Trump is left with an empty bag and would have difficulty moving ahead with the Russians on Ukraine.
In any negotiation the opening position is a starting point to a deal. It is unusual that one side can dictate any arrangement.
What we know is that the US wants a deal on Ukraine to end the war. Seemingly the Russians share that viewpoint, although apparently they want a quick deal or none at all.
The Russians could continue the war in Ukraine, taking advantage of the weakening of Ukraine’s army, the lack of supplies that can come from Europe, and the risk that the US arsenal is depleted and inadequate.
One of the additional negative factors has been the use of American front line weapons in Ukraine. Over time the Russians have learned how to intercept some US weapons, such as HIMARS and ATACMS. Would they share what they learned with their Chinese and Iranian counterparts? Likely.
There also is information that extremely sensitive information on HIMARS and other systems was sold to the Chinese by an active duty Army sergeant (himself of Chinese ethnicity). We don’t know in any detail what was contained in the stolen information, but apparently it was quite extensive as an entire Top Secret hard drive was stolen. China, of course, is interested in HIMARS because the US Marines are positioning HIMARS on the island of Yonaguni, close to Taiwan, with the objective of interdicting any Chinese landing force attacking Taiwan. Similarly, Taiwan is starting to acquire HIMARS, although deliveries were delayed for some time (a blunder of significant proportions given the evolving threat of invasion from China).
What this means is that the US faces a potentially aggressive China that can threaten Taiwan, possibly also Japan which houses vital US Air Force and Navy bases. It should not be overlooked that Okinawa, which has US Marines and Air Force bases, is Japanese territory.
Zelensky has found it necessary (thanks to the US arms delivery shut down) to look like he is advocating a peace framework, but no doubt he will insist on Russia pulling most of its forces out of Ukraine. On top of that he will want security guarantees from the United States. He calls it a “security partnership” with the United States. The idea that the Minerals Agreement is a stand in for a security guarantee is, at best, a weak reed from Ukraine’s point of view. What they want is US boots on the ground, something President Trump has, so far, ruled out.
Zelensky was promoting a meeting with President Trump that would include both himself, Keir Starmer from the UK and Emanuel Macron from France. Right now it seems Washington has vetoed such a meeting, preferring a principals meeting in Riyadh without President Trump in attendance. That undermines the one piece of real leverage Zelensky has, which is to use Europe and NATO against the US. However, what he misses is that doing so has the perverse effect of taking a wrecking ball to NATO if the US finds itself deeply estranged from its NATO allies. There are already serious rumblings as the Trump administration tries to offload its NATO responsibilities on Europe.
In actuality the only real asset Zelensky has is to hang on and continue to oppose major concessions to Russia. While he has played the Europeans very well, US resistance to supporting Ukraine and push back on various proposals from the UK, France and, to a lesser extent from Germany, has not yielded anything so far beneficial to Ukraine’s situation.
It would be amazing if there was a positive outcome in Riyadh. Washington has to be alert to the fact that Zelensky agrees to one thing, but often does the reverse. Having said that, President Trump needs a package he can put on the table with Russia. Those negotiations with Russia look stalled until the US can work out a deal with Zelensky.
Meanwhile Russia continues pressing Ukraine’s army, gaining ground. If Russia forces Ukraine’s army into surrendering, the game is over. Then it is Russia’s problem on what to do with a hostile population and a wrecked infrastructure.
Source: author’s blog
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