Donald Trump’s second term as U.S. president has kicked off with a dramatic overhaul of the National Security Council (NSC), raising concerns among diplomatic observers about the future of U.S.-China relations. The recent dismissal of approximately 100 NSC staff members, many from the China team, coupled with the abrupt removal of key figures like National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, has sparked debate over whether Trump’s approach to China will become increasingly erratic. Experts warn that these changes could not only amplify unpredictability in Washington’s China policy but also complicate communication with Taiwan, a critical U.S. partner in the region. This article explores the implications of the NSC shake-up for U.S.-China relations and its broader impact on global stability, drawing on recent developments and expert analysis.
NSC Reorganization: Radical Cuts and Shifting Priorities
In May 2025, the Trump administration initiated a significant reduction in the National Security Council (NSC) staff, dismissing approximately 100 employees, many of whom were specialists in China-related issues. According to the South China Morning Post, this is part of a plan to drastically reduce the NSC’s staff from over 300 members, as it was under President Joe Biden, to just 50. Trump’s allies state that his goal is to return to a leaner NSC model, similar to that under Brent Scowcroft in the 1970s and 1980s, when the council served as a confidential advisor to the president rather than a large-scale think tank.
However, such radical changes have raised concerns. The dismissal of experienced specialists, including China experts, could limit the administration’s access to in-depth analysis and lead to decisions driven by the president’s personal preferences rather than professional recommendations. This could result in a policy approach “less constrained by established norms,” increasing unpredictability.
Additionally, the resignation of Mike Waltz, who served as National Security Advisor, has added to the uncertainty. Waltz was dismissed in early May 2025 following an incident involving a leak of classified information via the Signal app, as well as disagreements with Trump on foreign policy matters. His position was filled by Marco Rubio, who is simultaneously serving as Secretary of State—an unusual combination of roles. Rubio, known for his hawkish stance on China, may reinforce the administration’s hardline approach, but his overburdened portfolio raises questions about his ability to effectively coordinate the NSC’s work.
Increased hawkish rhetoric towards China
During his first term, Trump’s policy toward China was characterized by tough measures, including trade wars and sanctions aimed at curbing Beijing’s economic and technological influence. His second term appears poised to continue this trajectory with even greater intensity. According to The New York Times, the Trump administration has already proposed expanding restrictions on U.S.-China investments and tightening controls on technology exports. The appointments of figures like Marco Rubio and Elise Stefanik (the new U.S. Ambassador to the UN) underscore the prioritization of a hawkish approach that views China as an existential threat.
However, experts such as Rush Doshi from the Council on Foreign Relations note that achieving a complete “decoupling” of the U.S. and Chinese economies would require far more than trade restrictions and visa barriers. Such measures could lead to rising inflation in the U.S., an exodus of talented researchers to China or other countries, and reduced access for U.S. intelligence agencies to valuable sources of information from China. Moreover, Trump’s unpredictability—evident in his shifting stances on issues like TikTok or his personal relationship with Xi Jinping—adds uncertainty to the long-term outlook.
Implications for Taiwan
The reorganization of the NSC has raised particular concerns in Taiwan, which relies on U.S. support amid growing pressure from China. The dismissal of China specialists and the turnover of key NSC figures could complicate Taipei’s communication with the White House. The reduction in the NSC’s expert staff may make it harder for Taiwan to establish dialogue with key figures in the Trump administration. This is especially alarming given the escalating tensions in the Taiwan Strait and China’s increasing military activity.
Meanwhile, experts from the International Crisis Group emphasize that Trump is likely to adopt a transactional approach to China, which could involve both tough measures and unexpected compromises depending on his personal priorities. This creates uncertainty for Taiwan, which requires consistent and predictable support from the United States.
Global implications and risks
The reorganization of the NSC and the escalation of hawkish rhetoric could have far-reaching consequences for global stability. For instance, NPR notes that diminishing the NSC’s influence in favor of figures like Marco Rubio and prioritizing loyalty over professionalism may weaken the administration’s ability to effectively address complex international challenges. This is particularly relevant in the context of U.S.-China relations, which remain a critical factor in global economics and security.
Moreover, Trump’s actions, such as imposing a 10% tariff on Chinese goods and threatening further trade wars, have already prompted retaliatory measures from Beijing, including a complaint to the WTO and its own tariffs on American goods. This could escalate into a broader trade conflict, which economists warn could create chaos for global business.
The NSC’s reorganization and the turnover of key figures in the Trump administration signal a potential increase in U.S. policy unpredictability toward China. The dismissal of experienced specialists and the reliance on loyal but less qualified allies, such as Rubio and Stefanik, may limit the White House’s analytical capabilities, leading to more impulsive decisions. For Taiwan, this poses risks of deteriorating communication with Washington, while for the global economy, it threatens new trade wars. At the same time, Trump’s transactional approach leaves room for unexpected compromises, rendering the future of U.S.-China relations highly uncertain.
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