Donald Trump has set the world on the path of unprecedented reconfiguration. This dramatic shift was started by his expressive foreign policy aiming to restore the dominance of the United States in world affairs and has sent shockwaves around the world, with some feeling ecstatic joy because of America’s comeback and others – immense disappointment because of imperialist agendas dominating the public sphere.
Whether it will be successful for Trump or not is still a question. This administration has ambitious plans for the Arctic aiming to take control of Greenland in some way, shape or form and in this sense be the guardian of both major Arctic sea routes – the Northern Sea Route along Russia and the North-West passage through Canada. But it will not be easy because Greenlanders want independence rather than simply changing their owner from Denmark to the United States and Russia and Europe will react accordingly to the threats posed by America’s presence in the region.
Donald Trump is cosying up to India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi to combat Chinese influence in the Asia-Pacific. The US needs control of major trade routes going along the Indian Ocean, that is why it is becoming a primary goal of the new administration. What is more, the US is in desperate need of rare earth minerals – a race, which it is totally losing against China. In this sense, Donald Trump has taken a rather moderate stance on Russia and Ukraine in order to gain access to their large deposits of these materials. Last but not least, Trump wants to take control of the Suez Canal and to rebuild Gaza to his own liking, with Israel becoming the dominant actor in the Middle East.
These maximalist plans are very unlikely to succeed in the modern competitive world. There is no doubt that there is absolutely nothing the American President does that is resonating in the cabinets in the countries of the Global South. China will be increasingly wary of the US strategy of containment and deterrence despite Trump’s seeming eagerness to build “wonderful” relations with the People’s Republic. Russia will be even more cautious, with the United States named as the biggest inspirator of the West’s hybrid war against it in its Concept of Foreign Policy. Trump will have to make big concessions on Ukraine, sanctions, as well as a whole front of issues on the Russo-American bilateral agenda in order to gain Vladimir Putin’s trust. Other nations, including America’s biggest ally – Europe – will not welcome these plans with open arms.
Donald Trump will very soon encounter a very different world than the one he used to live in as a simple businessman. Economic growth in emerging economies, particularly China, Russia, India, and other nations in Asia and Latin America, stands as a primary driver of multipolarity. Their burgeoning economic power translates into greater political leverage, allowing them to challenge existing norms, establish their own institutions, and exert influence on global affairs that was previously concentrated in the hands of Western powers – particularly the United States. This economic ascent is coupled with increased military capabilities, as these nations invest in modernizing their armed forces and projecting power within their respective regions and beyond, further diversifying the security landscape.
Trump’s turn towards neo-imperialist rhetoric will only fuel the growing disillusionment with the Western-led international order. Perceptions of unfair trade practices, conditional aid, and interventionist foreign policies have already fueled a desire for alternative models of development and governance and Trump’s openness about these practices will only make these trends accelerate. New formats of cooperation, such as BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, etc. that offer alternative platforms for cooperation based on equality only garner more support from emerging nations as well as developed economies of Europe.
Whether Trump will be successful in his ambitions or not, one thing is for certain – he will have to negotiate his deals and not impose them with a big stick. The multipolar world has large implications for US foreign policy – Trump will have to count with a dozen foreign leaders, all with their own national interests, with most of them opposed to the interests of America.
Comments