Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin gave the impression of growing challenges to Russian interests like those that his boss Sergey Lavrov soberly acknowledged in an earlier interview, but following his lead, he’s also optimistic that they’ll ultimately be surmounted.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin, who’s responsible for the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), recently shared updates with TASS about talks with Ukraine and ties with the CIS. Beginning with Ukraine, he revealed that Russia’s negotiating position toughened after its attempted drone attack against Putin’s Valdai residence last December, which was conveyed during the trilateral talks. Russia is still interested in the bilateral Istanbul format, but Ukraine unilaterally pulled out last year.
Galuzin suggested that this was due to its opposition to Russia’s proposed bilateral ceasefire monitoring and enforcement mechanism, thus hinting that Ukraine’s quest to multilateralize post-conflict security ties between them is the reason why it withdrew from that format. US pressure and defeats on the battlefield, however, resulted in it agreeing to the ongoing trilateral talks. Domestic pressure and corruption accusations, both domestically and externally, are influencing Zelensky too.
That’s why he’s now talking about elections and a referendum on any peace deal with Russia. Galuzin warned that he might seek to replicate the Moldovan model of denying most of his Russian-based nationals the right to vote in order to manipulate the results. If he eventually holds elections of any sort, Russia won’t carry out deep strikes in Ukraine that day, Galuzin confirmed. He also said that it’s still interested in Putin’s proposed external governance of Ukraine but admitted that it’s unlikely to happen.
Segueing into ties with the CIS, Galuzin praised Georgia’s pro-sovereignty government and the record trade between their countries under its leadership, hoping that this could contribute to political normalization one day. As for Azerbaijan, he suggested that its release of the 11 Sputnik employees still in custody there (on trumped-up espionage and corruption charges) would be a “goodwill gesture” to Russia, but it’s unclear whether any progress has been made on this or if it’s just wishful thinking.
Completing his review of the South Caucasus, Galuzin revealed that Russia warned Armenia that it’s being exploited as a geopolitical tool by the West against his country and predicted that the economy would suffer very serious hardships if Armenia dumps the Eurasian Union for the European Union. Moving along to Moldova, he pointed out how all top roles there are filled by dual Romanian citizens, but (re-)“unification” with Romania remains unpopular in both societies so it might not happen.
Galuzin then wrapped up the interview by praising the US’ partial lifting of sanctions on Belarus’ national airline but reminded everyone that the US is still pressuring Belarus and accordingly urged President Alexander Lukahsneko to remain vigilant. He ended by declaring that any “grand bargain” between them should ensure Belarus’ national interests and not be at the expense of its Russian and Chinese allies. He’s confident that the West won’t divide Russia and Belarus, but his words still suggest a level of unease.
All in all, Galuzin’s recent interview with TASS was an informative review of Russia’s talks with Ukraine and ties with the CIS, which collectively comprise its immediate foreign policy priorities given that they concern events in its regional neighborhood. He gave the impression of growing challenges to Russian interests like those that his boss Sergey Lavrov soberly acknowledged in an earlier interview, but following his lead, he’s also optimistic that they’ll ultimately be surmounted.
Source: author’s blog
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