During the last weeks Afghanistan is smoothly getting back to international focus. There were so many interesting events scarcely covered by the mainstream media around Afghan affairs. We will try to scrutinize the situation, analyze real motives of the key players and elaborate a forecast on what will happen next in that long-suffering land.
First of all there is a notable shift in the US approach towards President Hamid Karzai. This person, widely perceived as an ‘American puppet’, is apparently getting out of Washington’s tight leash.
Karzai is beginning to establish direct political contacts with China, Russia, India and Iran. In a recent development, on June 11, 2010 he was a special guest on the summit of Shanghai group (SCO) in Tashkent. It was agreed that Russia will host a four-side meeting in August with Afghanistan, Pakistan and Tajikistan. It is evident that the main topic of the agenda will be in seeking political solution of the turmoil in Afghanistan and reconstruction of the Afghan economy in regional context.
He has sought and apparently holds independent direct talks with the Taliban and other forces (e.g. Hekmatyar’s Islamic Party) without the US ‘blessing’ and mediation. Being a smart politician he eventually understood that his role in American eyes was not in pulling peaceful and stable Afghanistan into the US orbit, but rather in a silent compromise with the total devastation of his home land. It has been plunged into endless civil war and emerging conflict with destabilizing Pakistan over the ‘Durand line.’ So he wants to make his dream about proud and prosperous Afghanistan come true. The first step to achieve this goal is to reach an internal accord between rivaling sides of Afghan society and pacify the country. Time has proved it cannot be done with the US and allies involved in negotiations. Their agenda is not in accord with Afghanistan’s needs for the future.
The recently held Loya Jirga (all-Afghan People’s Council), a Karzai initiative, was described in the international media as ‘non-representative’, ‘consisting of Karzai’s stooges’, ‘lacking any real influence and results’ and so on. It means that Loya Jirga was not approved by global elites and is a move against realization of dark scenario for Central Asia. It is very important to note that irreconcilables of the Taliban strongly opposed to Loya Jirga and even committed attacks against the Council delegates. This is a small remark to the discussion whether the interests of radical ‘islamists’ (presumed 9/11 perpetrators) and Washington are so much drastically incompatible or perhaps sometimes coinciding (or even more than that?)…
In this context Karzai’s latest decision to discharge Interior Minister Hanif Atmar and Intelligence Chief Amrullah Saleh (known CIA arms in his circle) for failure to prevent ‘islamist’ assaults on Loya Jirga members is another signal of Karzai’s alienation from Washington.
So for Karzai it likely became evident that the ‘democratic process’ in Afghanistan as imposed by the US was a path to nowhere, to total collapse of Afghan nationhood and the long-term instability in the region. He has started his own game. This is why we are reading and will read so many ‘revelations’ about ‘involvement of Karzai’s clan in narco business’, ‘corruption’, ‘weak governance’ and so on and so forth… The US is predictable in its push-back.
Second. The US is willing to leave Afghanistan. But they can’t do it right away. They need an appearance of ‘mission complete’. A head of bin Laden (always ready to be cut and present, we are sure). A weak and manageable figure in Kabul is desirable. A tangible agreement with the Taliban leaving untouched narco-production is necessary. Secretly, secured mechanisms to blow up Afghanistan and trigger new wave of hatred and bloodshed there any time they want after the withdrawal. They desire to leave, but do not desire the conditions to be stable.
What does it mean? It means that at the time being any announcement about the voluntary withdrawal of the US and NATO troops from Afghanistan would signify that everything is set up and ready for implosion. Withdrawal of the US/NATO troops from Afghanistan will be inevitably followed by escalation of the civil war and conservation of Afghan status as main ‘heroin lab’ of the world (and then no one will take responsibility for that).
Concluding this, we can forecast future scenarios for Afghanistan:
Quite obviously, soon there will be a notable outbreak of internal opposition in Afghanistan. Huge sums will be invested in alternative figures from the top Afghan army command, security officials and some of the ambitious provincial leaders. Mass riots are very probable during and immediately after the parliamentary elections in the country due to be held in September 2010. The outcome fully depends on the ability of Karzai’s team to cope with the internal tensions under enormous media pressure from abroad. If he succeeds and does not allow the protests to be spread on streets and situation in Afghanistan to be destabilized, the fantasy of the ‘global elite’ would hardly go beyond an attempt of political assassination of the Afghan leader by Taliban/Al-Qaeda fighters with a ‘clear Pakistani trace.’
We pray for prudence and wisdom of President Karzai and his associates. If they fail, is there any chance for a miracle that another Afghan project team imposed by backstage players will be smart and talented enough to change the rules of the Great Game? Will Afghanistan become the hub of the wheel around which Chaosistan turns? We shall see.
The is peculiar with Afghanistan that its leaders ultimately turn in to nationalist leader. See all the creed under Soviet influence, they are were killed when they changed their shade from a puppet to a nationalist leader.
If one remember the way Daud behaved on his visit to then Soviet Union and told then Soviet President the words to effect that ‘ The decisions regarding Afghans would be taken by Afghans only’. I didn’t take longer when he was assassinated in a counter coup, same happened with the rest of All less Dr Najeeb who was killed by Mujaheddin after the power that mattered abandoned him alone in a UN ‘dungeon’.
Krazai, his a a Pakhtoon, he is in a new trap, on one side he is proving sympathetic to Pakhtoons by establishing a commission who are mandated to wean out those Taliban prisoners who considered lesser evil or have less to do with the on going resistance. The shift in stance toward Pakistan is positive, he want to go soft with Pakistan with the mix of negotiated strategy with Taliban.
This seems practical as he has good connection with the majority Pakhtoon and thus Taliban, his broth in Kandahar is instrumental in such links, owing to his drug activities which can’t get safe passage without good liaison with the Taliban cadres.
Well there is a skepticism, that th eUS might be presenting Karazai as sympathizers of Taliban and a strong voice of Pakhtoons to keep their man in place as the alternatives would certainly be worse, as they would deem .
This can be a strategy to project Karazai as an Afghan leader who has developed estranged relation with US, a qualification for a wider Afghan support less the northern part, thus is put to a chance of Taliban support.
Karazai is a person who has the potential to be used as a bridge between Taliban and the American interest,he has the potential to tame Taliban to a level where after US withdrawal it is easier
for them to manage a government that can look after US interest with a little trade off of tolerating Taliban but denying them the effective role in the Afghan affairs and government.
Karazai is exploiting this all, knowing like typical Afghan how to exploit the situation when one becomes inevitable.
One thing is for sure, cookery doesn’t work much longer with Afghans, they understand it and are most difficult once they come to know that they are being duped.
The best solution of Afghan problem lies is US withdrawal. The have projected Taliban as bad guys unnecessarily. They lack understanding on Afghanistan and its people, that has resulted in flawed strategies and policies. These have all failed miserably, and the new one is also meeting the same fate.
They pretend as if no one knows that Taliban are the only entity who controlled Afghanistan effectively for the first time when they were ruling it from 1999 to 2001.
Heaven are not going to fall if Taliban are in control of Afghanistan. They would be more restrained in showing them responsible as far I visualize and know.
One can’t feed on strategies with propaganda themes, let see what is real. Taliban is another name for the Afghans like Mujahaddin or Jihadi, they are Afghans in real.
US would have to shun the notion of ‘ fighting two war potentials’ it has failed. It is hard to fight a nation’s will that too a nation with a tough record of history whose tradition is successfully resisting the foreign occupations and intrusions.
They wold get money and would give all the lips but ultimately an Afghan is loyal to Afghans only.
Sounds very knowledgeable. The US should end the war on drugs, poromoting education and treatment in its place. Leave Afghanistan’s poppy production alone, let the neighboring countries figure out how to keep the place stable (if that won’t make us unsafe). Maybe the US sxhould be on the team with the others, so as to safeguard our interests (if that is possible).
Afghans are tribal people and they’ve tribal allegiances and codes of honors. One of their allegiance is they and only they–the Afghans–are masters of their destinies and they do not allow foreigners on their soil. Each foreigner who has tried to change their way has met with resistance. The mighty British and the even mightier Soviets failed to conquer their lands and their ways of life. Now the Americans with the rest of their NATO friends are in Afghanistan; they’re getting frustrated. No doubt they will get frustrated because they can’t and never will overcome the will of the Afghans.
I’m not the least surprised that Karzai, being a Pashtoon, is doing an about turn on his masters. After all he is a part of the Afghan destiny, Afghan way of life and the Afghan code.
Now the Americans have come up with a super bait–the trillion dollar bait. The bait maybe to bribe the Afghans. The bait may also be for the Chinese as they’ve all the money for investments or the bait is to print more dollars. I don’t know but the bait is not a small one. A trillion dollar bait is to catch the big fish. And moreover, all the mineral wealth, the energy and the lithium is useless unless the US has unrestricted access to the warm waters.
Amazing article! I’ll have to come back when I have more time to post. You’ve been bookmarked.
America is capable to stop all type of war in Afghanistan when he will act so peace will come for all nations.