Poland’s Revival Of The Weimar Triangle Facilitates Western Security Guarantees For Ukraine

To paraphrase what Brzezinski famously wrote about Russia and Ukraine, “Without Poland, Germany can never become a superpower, but with Poland suborned and then subordinated, Germany automatically becomes a superpower.”

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk made a big deal earlier this week of reviving the previously dormant Weimar Triangle format between his country, Germany, and France, during which time he proposed closer military cooperation aimed at containing Russia. This took place shortly after he comprehensively subordinated Poland to Germany and just days before that country and France planned to sign UK-like security guarantee pacts with Ukraine. Here are some background briefings to bring folks up to speed:

* “NATO’s Proposed ‘Military Schengen’ Is A Thinly Disguised German Power Play Over Poland

* “Poland Is In The Throes Of Its Worst Political Crisis Since The 1980s

* “Germany Is Rebuilding ‘Fortress Europe’ To Assist The US’ ‘Pivot (Back) To Asia’

* “Poland’s Economic Subordination To Germany Follows Its Political & Military Subordination

* “The Reportedly Planned G7 Envoy To Ukraine Would Be Tasked With Carrying Out The Davos Agenda

To paraphrase what Brzezinski famously wrote about Russia and Ukraine, “Without Poland, Germany can never become a superpower, but with Poland suborned and then subordinated, Germany automatically becomes a superpower.” Everything that’s unfolded in the two months since Tusk returned to power extends credence to conservative-nationalist opposition leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski’s claims that he’s a German agent hellbent on subordinating Poland to that country in order to help build the “Fourth Reich”.

Scholz and TuskLast month’s partial implementation of the “military Schengen” proposal allows Germany to freely move troops and equipment to and from Poland for the first time since World War II, which adds crucial heft to the UK-like security guarantee deal that it’s poised to sign with Ukraine. Likewise, France is also expected to join the “military Schengen” in order to use Polish territory for that same purpose, ergo why Tusk decided to revive the Weimar Triangle practically on the eve of those two clinching such pacts with Kiev.

Furthermore, Germany and France are members of the G7 while Poland only participates in it under the EU’s umbrella, not as an independent party. The Russian foreign spy chief’s report that it plans to appoint a special envoy to Ukraine is intended to implement Zelensky’s proposal from May 2022 for dividing the country into spheres of economic influence. Suffice to say, Poland will also facilitate those two’s extraction of wealth from there, which could occur at the expense of its own envisaged sphere.

As a true believer in liberal-globalism, Tusk is opposed to the conservative-nationalist policies of his predecessors, which means that he’s willing to sacrifice his country’s objective national interests in furtherance of what he’s been convinced is the so-called “greater (German) good”. To that end, he subordinated Poland to Germany in order to place the latter on a superpower trajectory, all for the purpose of turning it into the core of the West’s post-modern European civilization in the New Cold War.

Tusk calculated that it’s better for Germany to become a superpower and contain Russia with a coalition of junior partners like Poland than for Poland to assume this role on its own via the “Three Seas Initiative” that his predecessors sought to assemble for that reason. In his mind, a German superpower has a greater chance of containing Great Power Russia than if Germany just remained a Great Power even if Poland became one too, so he sacrificed his country’s goals for that “greater (German) good”.

The Weimer Triangle is relevant because Germany still requires others to share the “burden” of containing Russia since it can’t do so on its own even if it finally becomes a superpower like Chancellor Olaf Scholz none-too-subtly hinted that he wants to have happen in his December 2022 article. France can play a complementary role in this respect, especially with regards to the West’s shared goal of providing security guarantees to Ukraine per the G7’s declaration last summer, but only if Poland helps it.

That’s why Tusk moved to revive the Weimar Triangle in the lead-up to those two clinching such pacts with Kiev, after which Paris is expected to participate in the “military Schengen” that was partially agreed to between Poland, Germany, and the Netherlands last month. The added benefit for it and Germany is that Poland will also facilitate the extraction of Ukrainian wealth from their spheres of influence there via its territory so this expensive containment scheme might eventually pay for itself and then some.

Without the Weimar Triangle’s revival, Germany would still struggle to contain Russia even after “Fortress Europe” is built, but that’s no longer a problem because it can now depend on Poland to lend a helping hand to France’s efforts to assist it to this end. Those two can therefore add crucial heft to their security guarantee pacts with Ukraine, which was made possible by Poland once again subordinating itself to Germany, with the end result being that Germany is now on a superpower trajectory.

Source: the author’s blog

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