Her reference to the Balkans and Africa in the context of supposedly Russian-inspired instability, which most commentators ignored when opining on her latest remarks, might presage more Western meddling in Bosnia and the Horn of Africa.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni claimed in a recent interview that “If Russia had not invaded Ukraine, in all likelihood Hamas would not have launched such an attack against Israel. It was inevitable that such a serious violation of international law, moreover at the hands of a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council, would have cascading consequences on other areas of the world, from the Middle East to the Balkans, up to Africa.”
She added that “This is the game we are playing, and we must be aware. If international legality is not re-established in Ukraine, the outbreaks of conflict will continue to multiply.” Her words should be interpreted as reviving the discredited conspiracy theory that Hamas is operating as Russian proxies via Moscow’s Iranian partners per some secret quid pro quo between them. There’s no truth to that notion, but it’s meant to galvanize the West against those two in the New Cold War.
The reason why she’s bringing that up again, however, is to connect other unrelated geopolitical developments in Afro-Eurasia to Russia’s special operation. Her reference to the Middle East was already explained, while the one to the Balkans likely refers to the specter of Serbian separatism in Bosnia. Her mentioning of Africa, meanwhile, is probably an allusion to last month’s Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between Ethiopia and Somaliland more so than anything else in the continent.
With respect to Bosnia, the West has bene pushing the false claim that Serbian separatism there isn’t the result of the dysfunctional Dayton Accords and NATO’s de facto expansion into this divided country, but supposedly part of some shadowy Kremlin plot to destabilize Europe far behind the Ukrainian front lines. As for the Horn of Africa, a Somalian Defense Committee member implied a few days back that Russia is the “hidden hand” that his president claimed is behind the MoU during his trip to Italy late last month.
The reader should also be aware that Meloni’s conspiracy theory was pushed right as Italy clinched a security deal with Ukraine during her trip to Kiev over the weekend, which will likely precede it joining the “military Schengen” that’s quickly taking shape in Europe. Unlike France, which just reached a similar agreement with Ukraine and will predictably export military equipment there via the newly formed German-Polish “land bridge”, Italy will probably rely on the Greek-Bulgarian-Romanian route instead.
The reason why this is relevant is because her conspiracy theory distracts from the rapid progress being made on building “Fortress Europe”, which is the geostrategic trend that’s being prioritized in the aftermath of Russia’s victory in Avdeevka. Upon its completion, the US can then rely on the German-led EU for containing Russia in Europe, thus enabling it to redeploy some of its forces there to Asia so as to more muscularly contain China as that front of the New Cold War heats up once the European one cools.
Italy also has interests in the Balkans and the Horn of Africa too, the first due to geographic proximity and its World War II-era alliance with Croatia whose people comprise one of Bosnia’s three titular nationalities, while the second is due to Somalia having been its former colony. In fact, that country might soon become its neo-colony after its president literally asked Italy to take back control of its lost plantations there during his trip last month in a bid to secure support against Ethiopia and Somaliland.
This front of the New Cold War is poised to become more prominent in the coming future as Somalia plots a Hybrid War against its two neighbors in collusion with Eritrea and Egypt, whose leaders are presently meeting in Cairo and reaffirmed their support for Mogadishu. Eritrea also used to be a former Italian colony and its leader was in Rome last month too as part of that country’s African Summit so it can’t be ruled out that Meloni might seek to involve Italy in any prospective conflict by way of those two.
After all, it was highly unusual for the Eritrean leader to travel to Europe, let alone to remain in Rome for as long as he did. A popular blog run by one of his country’s expats described this 10-day visit as a “turning point”, which is true. It might very well even turn out in hindsight that the Eritrean leader’s trip represents the beginning of an incipient thaw in ties with the West, which could be sealed by his country’s participation in any forthcoming Somalian-led Hybrid War on Ethiopia and Somaliland.
Neoconservative thinker Robert Kagan, who’s married to Under Secretary of State Victoria Nuland of “EuroMaidan” infamy, postulated as far back as 2008 about “The Return of History and the End of Dreams” in his seminal book of that name. Its relevance to the present is that he foresaw the return of Great Power rivalry and those major countries falling back into their previous patterns of behavior, which in Italy’s case could see Rome soon flexing its historical influence in the Balkans and parts of Africa.
That would account for why Meloni brought up those two regions when reviving the discredited conspiracy theory about a Russian-Hamas connection, which most observers probably thought was random but could in hindsight have been a hint about what’s soon to come in Bosnia and the Horn. The security deal that Italy just clinched with Ukraine could presage closer military cooperation with Croatia on the pretext of thwarting Serbian separatism and a related pact with Somalia in response to the MoU.
Both developments in those different parts of the world share a common Russian connection in Western leaders’ minds so it therefore follows that this bloc could get more involved there on the false pretext of containing Russia. It’s for these reasons why Meloni’s conspiracy theory has ulterior geopolitical motives since she didn’t have to bring up the Balkans and Africa in that context, thus suggesting that Western-driven instability might soon rock Bosnia and Ethiopia-Somaliland, albeit in different ways.
Source: the author’s blog
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